7 Ways to Backtest Your Sports Betting Strategy
Do you spend your time analyzing and researching different sports betting strategies but are still unsure how they work in the real world? Then you might want to consider running a backtest.
With a backtest, instead of placing the bets as if they were live bets (called forward testing), past outcomes are used to determine what would have happened if you had placed a bet at a given point in time. You can determine if a system is truly profitable enough to be considered a viable sports betting strategy using statistics and probability.
There are many ways to test your sports betting strategy, but the key is to have a valid sample size.
The problem with amateur bettors is that they don’t have enough data or their sample size isn’t big enough to yield accurate results. This is why it’s very important to have a solid understanding of your strategy, so you can backtest it properly and determine if it is truly profitable.
Use One Account for Testing
A common mistake that some bettors make is testing on multiple accounts at once. This often leads to skewed results because your betting style on one account might differ from your style on another.
The key here is to use one ‘test’ account and make sure that all of your bets are tracked in a spreadsheet or simple notebook. Of course, betting on a legitimate sportsbook like WB7 in Singapore, it’s a must.
Use a Unique Sports Betting Strategy
It’s important to understand what type of strategy you are using to bet on sports. Some people might use a hedging strategy, while others may use an arbitrage betting system.
Whatever your betting style is, it’s essential that it’s something different than what you would normally do on the main account. This will help improve your results by avoiding any crossover of bets between accounts.
Develop a Solid Bankroll Management Strategy
Another critical component of sports betting is bankroll management. This doesn’t mean that you need to have thousands or even hundreds of dollars before you can start betting, but instead, develop a system that lets you bet within your means.
A 6% max bet is one good rule to follow when starting out betting at, say, a sportsbook in Singapore since it allows you to place larger bets but still limits your risk.
Use a Stop Loss Strategy
It’s also very important to have a stop loss strategy in case you get off to an unexpectedly bad start. Your bankroll management is important here because it will determine how much of your capital you can afford to lose before making adjustments.
This is another reason why having one account for testing is essential because if you are starting with zero on the test account, you can easily go back to betting on your main account while tweaking different elements of your strategy.
Only Test With One Sport
You might be tempted to try out multiple sports when running tests, but this often leads to skewed results because people might be inclined to bet on a sport they know or have some interest in.
This is why it’s best to only test with one sport and determine if your strategy works across various different leagues/sports at sportsbooks like WB7.
Test Over the Long Term
If possible, you want to test over an extended period. If you only test for a couple of weeks or even months, it’s unlikely to provide accurate results because your sample size is too small. This is why it’s best to try and keep the experiments going for the long term (at least 6 months), so you can draw more reliable conclusions.
One disadvantage here is that it could be difficult to constantly monitor your account, and you might run into some roadblocks as you continue testing.
It’s also important to understand how much work goes into each test, and if the results make sense. If you are constantly tweaking different elements of your strategy, it will take a lot more time, although this is still better than testing with small sample size.
Make Sure You Track Everything
It’s also important to track everything you do when running your tests, and not just rely on the ‘traditional’ metrics like ROI and profit/loss. This means that it might be useful for you to track things like: number of bets placed, number of winners/losers, bets per day, average bet size, etc.
By tracking all this information, you will better understand your betting style and why certain things work while others don’t. This is also the only way to draw more reliable conclusions because if you’re not careful, running experiments could just be a colossal waste of time.